Non-US people exchanging $ it all into their national currency due to the crisis
Thread poster: José Huarancca
José Huarancca
José Huarancca  Identity Verified
Peru
Local time: 05:20
English to Spanish
+ ...
Apr 25, 2020

First of all, I always get paid in USD. Second, my national currency is the "Nuevo sol (S/.)". Here in Peru, $1 is about S/.3.4 right now, it rose as high as S/.3.57 last month but now it went down and has kind of stayed there. I believe the price of $1 will plummet as the Pandemic goes on, but I may be wrong?

What are your predictions in the future, and what should I read to more or less get a grasp of the situation?

Thanks

[Edited at 2020-04-25 11:59 GMT]


 
ATIL KAYHAN
ATIL KAYHAN  Identity Verified
Türkiye
Local time: 13:20
Member (2007)
Turkish to English
+ ...
Exchange Rate Apr 25, 2020

First of all, I am not an economist, I am an engineer. The exchange rate depends on two currencies, one is USD and the other is Nuevo Sol. Change in any of these currencies reflects in the exchange rate you mentioned.

For example, the exchange rate between USD and Turkish Lira (USD/TL) has been increasing in favor of USD for the past several months. One USD roughly equals 7.0 Turkish Lira now. I think a big chunk of that exchange rate (USD/TL) is due to Turkish Lira devaluation
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First of all, I am not an economist, I am an engineer. The exchange rate depends on two currencies, one is USD and the other is Nuevo Sol. Change in any of these currencies reflects in the exchange rate you mentioned.

For example, the exchange rate between USD and Turkish Lira (USD/TL) has been increasing in favor of USD for the past several months. One USD roughly equals 7.0 Turkish Lira now. I think a big chunk of that exchange rate (USD/TL) is due to Turkish Lira devaluation in the past several months, which is in turn due to weak Turkish economy. So, I think people still buy USD with their Turkish Lira to protect themselves against TL inflation. In this particular case, USD/TL exchange rate could be a reflection of TL devaluation rather than change in USD.

So, it all depends on which currency (against USD) we are talking about here. As I said, the exchange rate is a function of 2 currencies.
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Kevin Fulton
José Huarancca
Tina Vonhof (X)
Oleksandr Ivanov
 
Sofia Gutkin
Sofia Gutkin  Identity Verified
Australia
Local time: 21:20
Member (2012)
Russian to English
+ ...
Depends on the economic situation of the country Apr 25, 2020

I completely agree with Atil above. It's impossible to make global predictions when the whole world is suffering from the coronavirus pandemic. The USD might fall, but if the other currency falls even more (for example, this has happened in Russia), then the exchange rate might actually end up more favourable towards the US dollar. You need to study the economic situation in your country and how much it will be affected by the pandemic.

José Huarancca
Josephine Cassar
 
Thayenga
Thayenga  Identity Verified
Germany
Local time: 11:20
Member (2009)
English to German
+ ...
Reading material Apr 25, 2020

Watch the Stock Exchange and read all you can about the economic situation, especially in Perú and the US. Watch the exchange rate for a while and whenever it's in your favor, exchange your dollars. That is of course, if you can wait.

 
Sadek_A
Sadek_A  Identity Verified
Local time: 14:20
English to Arabic
+ ...
José needs a talk with José, but don't do it out loud, it irritates some :) Apr 25, 2020

You have to ask yourself a few questions:

- Are you currently getting goods, commodities and services for a lower, equal, or higher price than before?

- In a world where an entity called the US (the land and the people excluded, as they are hardly a player on any scale) runs everything, is it doable to bring down that entity without bringing down the global system in its entirety? And, if the global system malfunctions, does this not mean local malfunctions as well?
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You have to ask yourself a few questions:

- Are you currently getting goods, commodities and services for a lower, equal, or higher price than before?

- In a world where an entity called the US (the land and the people excluded, as they are hardly a player on any scale) runs everything, is it doable to bring down that entity without bringing down the global system in its entirety? And, if the global system malfunctions, does this not mean local malfunctions as well?

It's worth mentioning that there is an on-going global-scale approach to "drain" the general-public's means of subsistence, "minimize" their purchasing power, and eventually "subjugate?" them. Of course, certain categories are excluded from being covered under said approach.

Plenty of tools are being used, unemployment, no-benefits employment - aka. gig, constantly driving income down while concurrently driving cost-of-living up, international events like COVID, CONFUSION (one day, plastic bags bad - paper bags good - for environment, the other day, plastic money good - paper money bad - for the "same" environment; don't eat meat... stick to vegs, you can't live on vegs... have some meat; and between every THIS and every THAT, resources are straying and windows for higher pricing are opening ), just to name a few.

Do with the above what you will!
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DZiW (X)
DZiW (X)
Ukraine
English to Russian
+ ...
The parable of the pearl of great price? Apr 25, 2020

You are not exchanging but BUYING money#1 for money#2.

As far as quasi-petrodollars are too volatile, I'd rather go for gold, real estate, luxury, arts, gems, and other more stable essentials, having no-rush well-considered Plan A, B, and C. I can easily survive for at least a year of such a 'quarantine', otherwise I would go for long lasting food stocks and barter for equipment.


 
LIZ LI
LIZ LI  Identity Verified
China
Local time: 18:20
French to Chinese
+ ...
Haha Apr 27, 2020

I changed all my USD into CNY/RMB early March (or earlier) and the rate was surprisingly high...
$1 USD=¥7.09 CNY, the highest ever since I remember.
Though it stays stagant right the moment, I'm still planning to sell all my USD once I get a certain amount in my account.
I won't try to predict the future, but it seems logic for me to keep CNY because it doesn't feel safe to travel abroad.


José Huarancca
 
Katalin Horváth McClure
Katalin Horváth McClure  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 06:20
Member (2002)
English to Hungarian
+ ...
Currency risk mitigation Apr 27, 2020

I assume the question is how to mitigate currency risk (exchange rate changes between time of invoicing and time of payment), and not about currency speculation.
In general, the best way to protect ourselves from currency risk is to get paid in the currency that we actually need to pay living and business expenses. That means invoicing in that currency, and let the client bear the risk of exchange rates.
However, that is not always possible, some clients simply don't do that, they ju
... See more
I assume the question is how to mitigate currency risk (exchange rate changes between time of invoicing and time of payment), and not about currency speculation.
In general, the best way to protect ourselves from currency risk is to get paid in the currency that we actually need to pay living and business expenses. That means invoicing in that currency, and let the client bear the risk of exchange rates.
However, that is not always possible, some clients simply don't do that, they just want to pay in their own currency, or it is possible that we have expenses in another currency, not the currency that we get paid.
There exist currency risk hedging instruments, such a futures, but they are not available to the average freelancer, so we need to come up with something else to protect ourselves.
I good while ago (actually, back in 2007) I wrote an article for ProZ on this topic, it is called "Currency Risk Mitigation 101 for Translators"
The examples are simplified, for easy understanding of the basic idea.
I hope this is helpful:
https://www.proz.com/translation-articles/articles/1474/
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Non-US people exchanging $ it all into their national currency due to the crisis







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