A slight decline in sight in our sector? Thread poster: Eric Dos Santos
|
|---|
Eric Dos Santos
France
Local time: 20:55
Member (2010)
Italian to Portuguese
+ ...
Hello all colleagues,
talking to some colleagues and also some agency owners, it has emerged that the first quarter of 2024 was not exactly rosy.
Even on Linkedin the discussion is going on and many are blaming IA, especially in the Italian market, but it seems that the French market is not doing so well either.
Have you also experienced any decline? Just for information, for me the first quarter was positive, even +14% compared to last year, especially f... See more Hello all colleagues,
talking to some colleagues and also some agency owners, it has emerged that the first quarter of 2024 was not exactly rosy.
Even on Linkedin the discussion is going on and many are blaming IA, especially in the Italian market, but it seems that the French market is not doing so well either.
Have you also experienced any decline? Just for information, for me the first quarter was positive, even +14% compared to last year, especially for marketing, legal and transcreation translations.
For the technical sector, the results are less positive but still acceptable. ▲ Collapse
| | | |
There's a number of threads on this topic in this "Business issues" section dating back some months, really.
Experience varies with pair/subject areas, but as you say, there are enough people perceiving some adverse effects of some kind to make me think we are slowly moving from anecdotes to data. Only today on LinkedIn I saw yet another long-standing and ostensibly successful FIGS->Eng translator announce a change of career direction. And I think the number of threads itself is ind... See more There's a number of threads on this topic in this "Business issues" section dating back some months, really.
Experience varies with pair/subject areas, but as you say, there are enough people perceiving some adverse effects of some kind to make me think we are slowly moving from anecdotes to data. Only today on LinkedIn I saw yet another long-standing and ostensibly successful FIGS->Eng translator announce a change of career direction. And I think the number of threads itself is indicative of something changing. And a couple of large agencies entered administration in the last month or so.
Wish I'd started a list when I first noticed, must be approaching 20 people I know who have ceased to be full-time Fr-Eng translators in the last 18-24 months. I really don't recall those kind of numbers before.
But confirmation bias and all that too, I guess.... ▲ Collapse
| | | | | No more jobs I'd consider applying to | Apr 12 |
As I have decided to not accept LLM-related jobs for ethical reasons, all my work has dried up. In January, I was waiting for the usual clients to send jobs, they didn't. In February I wrote a desperate number of applications, cold and hot, to any translation job left that wasn't AI. Was told my rates were too high and that I needed at least a master's degree. In March I started to redesign my business and now I offer all my skills locally. This month I have started to get together with others t... See more As I have decided to not accept LLM-related jobs for ethical reasons, all my work has dried up. In January, I was waiting for the usual clients to send jobs, they didn't. In February I wrote a desperate number of applications, cold and hot, to any translation job left that wasn't AI. Was told my rates were too high and that I needed at least a master's degree. In March I started to redesign my business and now I offer all my skills locally. This month I have started to get together with others to study the creation of a cooperative (not just for translation, but a range of services) to make my local community more resilient and increase life quality for all who live here.
I have never really accepted that terms like 'business reality' and 'economic compulsions' are used to describe what looks increasingly like a real-life dystopia. Fighting copyright infringing climate-wrecking robots for some gruel dished out by the tech elite? Don't think so, I'm out. It was comfy while it lasted. ▲ Collapse
| | | |
I’ve seen many complain but I must say that in my case work has been as irregular as ever: one bad month is followed by a good one: January was excellent, February was bad, March was so, so, April has been good so far. If I compare to last year, I have been invoicing more this year than in 2023. I must say that I have been working mostly in EN/PT (even from French clients) and I have been noticing a strong decline in my other language pairs (FR/PT, ES/PT and IT/PT).
| | |
|
|
|
Zea_Mays 
Italy
Local time: 20:55
Member (2009)
English to German
+ ...
I think that AI bots have little to do (as yet) with what is going on.
We are still experiencing the effects of an economic crisis that started in 2022.
At that time, after the invasion of Ukraine, energy prices rose dramatically, in some countries by +100%, leading to inflation rates of 10% and above. As all costs of a business are always priced into consumer prices, we saw a huge rise in the prices of everyday goods.
Inflation is still rising at rates above the target, meani... See more I think that AI bots have little to do (as yet) with what is going on.
We are still experiencing the effects of an economic crisis that started in 2022.
At that time, after the invasion of Ukraine, energy prices rose dramatically, in some countries by +100%, leading to inflation rates of 10% and above. As all costs of a business are always priced into consumer prices, we saw a huge rise in the prices of everyday goods.
Inflation is still rising at rates above the target, meaning that we have that 10%+ plus n% every month ("decreasing inflation" is a euphemism), leading to still high prices, especially for everyday consumer goods and housing, with - and this is a key point - still the same wages from 2 years ago. This has led to less purchasing power = less consumption, meaning less profit for companies and therefore less investment = also less translations. Some industries are still doing better than others, but the overall situation is not that good. For example, Germany is in a little recession.
Strikingly (and understandably), media and politicians are not naming the issue openly.
The stats published on various sites often just show the average inflation rate, but what really counts is which categories are most affected - prices of unprocessed food rose by an average of 6.9% in January 2024, food in general by 5.6%.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/03/05/inflation-in-europe-which-countries-have-the-highest-and-lowest-inflation-rates
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/05/european-consumers-reluctant-to-splash-cash-despite-slowing-inflation
I am not an economy expert, but I think things will recover - if the global situation will not get even worse - from next year.
PS: My own income has not decreased, but I noticed that less work is coming from some agencies, while MTPE demand has increased.
[Bearbeitet am 2024-04-12 09:05 GMT] ▲ Collapse
| | | | Lieven Malaise
Belgium
Local time: 20:55
Member (2020)
French to Dutch
+ ...
I think we mustn't underestimate the role of confirmation bias. People complaining makes other people complain. It has been going on for a while now. Personally I receive as much requests as I've ever received, and maybe even more the last 2 months.
On the other hand I can see a clear shift from conventional translation to machine translation post-editing. I have now 4 good customers (out of 15 to 20 yearly customers) that have stopped offering conventional translation and are only ... See more I think we mustn't underestimate the role of confirmation bias. People complaining makes other people complain. It has been going on for a while now. Personally I receive as much requests as I've ever received, and maybe even more the last 2 months.
On the other hand I can see a clear shift from conventional translation to machine translation post-editing. I have now 4 good customers (out of 15 to 20 yearly customers) that have stopped offering conventional translation and are only offering MTPE jobs, while it would have been 1 two years ago. Besides that I have 2 customers that are taking their first steps into MTPE. So I expect this trend to continue.
Financially I'm not affected, because I made from MTPE a profitable service and the work supply is high enough to compensate for the extra words you need since the 30% applied discount.
But of course, translators that refuse to do MTPE, or refuse to apply a discount, or do MTPE at crazy bottom rates ... I'm afraid their future isn't looking too bright. ▲ Collapse
| | | | Chris Spurgin
United Kingdom
Local time: 19:55
Member (2016)
Russian to English
+ ...
| Most Western economies are stagnant | Apr 12 |
Energy costs and inflation are making businesses cut back on other expenses.
Best of luck to everyone.
| | | | Anne Maclennan
Local time: 20:55
Member (2010)
German to English
+ ...
| In-house translations | Apr 12 |
I agree with the opinion that the economic turn-down is affecting us. I think some companies are trying to keep costs down by using staff to do translations in the commoner languages. I have several times had to proofread “in-house” translations, which were done by people within the company “with some English” or "who speak English”. In each case the translation has transparently been the work of a native speaker of the source language and not of the target language.
| | |
|
|
|
Joakim Braun
Sweden
Local time: 20:55
German to Swedish
+ ...
My first quarter was considerably better than last year, both in terms of serious inquiries and actual jobs.
And despite having hiked rates a little bit because of inflation.
But things fluctuate, the data points are too few and I don't think it means very much. I think there's a downward overall trend that we've only seen the beginning of. It might possibly hit the lower end harder (because good AI translations are better than bad human translations), but I wouldn't bet on it... See more My first quarter was considerably better than last year, both in terms of serious inquiries and actual jobs.
And despite having hiked rates a little bit because of inflation.
But things fluctuate, the data points are too few and I don't think it means very much. I think there's a downward overall trend that we've only seen the beginning of. It might possibly hit the lower end harder (because good AI translations are better than bad human translations), but I wouldn't bet on it. ▲ Collapse
| | | | Eric Dos Santos
France
Local time: 20:55
Member (2010)
Italian to Portuguese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER | economic crisis and conjuncture | Apr 12 |
Thank you Charlie and all colleagues. I know it's a bit all over the place, but I wanted to see a bit of the current mood.
I too had a good quarter, especially for the more creative translations. And I think the ups and downs are nothing new...I don't know to what extent it's the fault of the AI.
It is probably more of an economic crisis and conjuncture than anything else. A colleague rightly commented that many economies are stagnant and investment is very low, so negative context ... See more Thank you Charlie and all colleagues. I know it's a bit all over the place, but I wanted to see a bit of the current mood.
I too had a good quarter, especially for the more creative translations. And I think the ups and downs are nothing new...I don't know to what extent it's the fault of the AI.
It is probably more of an economic crisis and conjuncture than anything else. A colleague rightly commented that many economies are stagnant and investment is very low, so negative context for many translators.
P.S. Anna Sarah I think it's great your initiative! ▲ Collapse
| | | | David GAY
Local time: 20:55
English to French
+ ...
Eric Dos Santos wrote:
Hello all colleagues,
talking to some colleagues and also some agency owners, it has emerged that the first quarter of 2024 was not exactly rosy.
hopefully slight
| | | | Annika Thornton
France
Local time: 20:55
Member (2018)
French to English
+ ...
| Translations are like buses... | Apr 24 |
In my experience, the translation industry fluctuates constantly.
I have always had periods where I have no work and no leads, followed by periods of intense activity.
The school holidays always seem to coincide with an increase in new and returning clients. August is my busiest month!
Personally, I started diversifying in the aftermath of Covid by offering interpreting and sworn translation. This has helped me to feel more relaxed about ChatGPT and the like....
... See more In my experience, the translation industry fluctuates constantly.
I have always had periods where I have no work and no leads, followed by periods of intense activity.
The school holidays always seem to coincide with an increase in new and returning clients. August is my busiest month!
Personally, I started diversifying in the aftermath of Covid by offering interpreting and sworn translation. This has helped me to feel more relaxed about ChatGPT and the like....
While I think AI is probably having an effect on my workload (I used to get requests to write emails for people which have completely disappeared), the quality, well-paid jobs are still around for the translators who are good at marketing and networking.
Saying that, my best clients are still those local companies who find me in the yellow pages. They're not switched on to the digital economy and they want to be reassured they're getting a quality service from a person they can talk to on the phone and meet in person.
Up until now, my translation activity has increased slightly every year. I will be interested to see if this year is the same. ▲ Collapse
| | |
|
|
|
Zea_Mays
Italy
Local time: 20:55
Member (2009)
English to German
+ ...
| To report site rules violations or get help, contact a site moderator: You can also contact site staff by submitting a support request » A slight decline in sight in our sector? | CafeTran Espresso | You've never met a CAT tool this clever!
Translate faster & easier, using a sophisticated CAT tool built by a translator / developer.
Accept jobs from clients who use Trados, MemoQ, Wordfast & major CAT tools.
Download and start using CafeTran Espresso -- for free
Buy now! » |
| | Anycount & Translation Office 3000 | Translation Office 3000
Translation Office 3000 is an advanced accounting tool for freelance translators and small agencies. TO3000 easily and seamlessly integrates with the business life of professional freelance translators.
More info » |
|
| | | | X Sign in to your ProZ.com account... | | | | | |
Login to reply/comment 
Translation news
